Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Onwards to the Nomination.. and Defeat

Hilary won the regular folks (Kentucky) and Obama won the latte/blogger crowd (or should that be the ca phe sua da/blogger crowd :) in Oregon and the nomination fight is about to wind down.

A good show for all and lots of fun fodder to discuss.  But unless Obama picks Clinton as his running mate, or picks up either Mark Warner or Tim Kaine (ex- and current Dem governors of Virginia, respectively), my prediction of a McCain victory still stands.  For all the naive Obamabot rhetoric of a 50-state strategy, last I checked we still use the Electoral College in this country.

This in-depth Electoral College analysis piece by Paul Maslin, titled"How Will Barack Get to 270/" on, sets the likely scenarios that Obama needs for EC victory.  To wit:
Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.
I do not think that Obama will win any of the following: Ohio (see Clinton blowout); New Mexico (Arizona's neighbor and the Hispanic problem); or Virginia (unless Warner or Kaine.. and more Warner than Kaine, because Warner is much, much more popular here).  Webb, the freshman Virginia Senator is cool and all, but he squeaked in via Maccaca and his wife is Vietnamese-American.  I am realistic enough to know that, unfortunately, in 2008 in America, your presidential ticket cannot be "too" diverse.  Sucks, but that's the truth.

Putting this up here to see if I am right in 6 months.

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